Research

sScheuch, E.G. The Minimal, Parallel Modern Effect of Courts on Public Opinion: Evidence from 44 Years of Experiments. Conditionally Accepted, American Journal of Political Science

Abstract: In an era of polarized judiciaries, re-evaluating the role of courts in shaping public opinion is vital. This study meta-analyses 121 effects from 29 experiments (1981-2025, N=40,171). I find that as average statistical power has risen dramatically over time, experimental estimates of court influence have fallen sharply, with average effects of just 0.05 standard deviations post-Citizen’s-United. These effects, when they appear, are non-heterogeneous by partisanship, moving Democrats and Republicans in the same direction. These minimal, parallel effects are confined mostly to narrow specific variables, especially specific support. How the court’s decisions are framed in the media is, on average, more consequential for opinion formation than the court decision itself. Encouragingly, I find no evidence of publication bias, overall or in any decade. This paper increases understanding of court influence on public opinion along several dimensions while outlining important directions for future research.

Scheuch, E.G. Voters Support and are Willing to Pay for Local Climate Adaptation Policies. Forthcoming, Urban Affairs Review

Abstract: Cities across the United States are increasingly turning to local climate policy as national climate action stalls. Yet public opinion research on local climate policies remains sparse. I conducted two national surveys (N=4,000) measuring respondent willingness to pay (WTP) and policy prioritization for local climate policies. Drawing on a key distinction between adaptation and mitigation policies, I find that respondents are substantially more willing to pay for adaptation policies, contributing to mean WTP estimates of $250–330 annually. These results replicate across time and survey vendors. A survey experiment further shows that high respondent WTP for adaptation policies is not an artifact of how policies are framed or which level of government administers them. Partisanship, age, and income are the strongest predictors of WTP, though partisan polarization varies considerably across policies. These findings point to local adaptation policy as a promising avenue for climate progress, even amid federal policy retrenchment.

Scheuch, E.G. (2026). The Null Impact of Parenthood on Technical Risk Preferences. American Politics Research (Impact Factor: 2.3), 54(2), 256-267.

Abstract: The transition to parenthood is a highly disruptive experience. Previous research has found that this disruption can change an individual's political views, but there is a debate in both the academic and popular literature on if parenthood makes individuals more liberal or more conservative, particularly on technical social risks such as climate change and gun control. Taking advantage of recent evolutions in Differences-in-Differences methodology & best practices, I test the impact of parenthood on public opinion toward climate change and gun control in the United States using panel data (N=9,000) that allows each individual to be used as their own control group. This is the first panel study of climate change and parenthood to take advantage of these methodological improvements and the first panel study to examine the link between parenthood and gun attitudes. Despite expectations that individuals will move their opinions once they become parents, I do not find any evidence that, regardless of subgroup and model selection, parenthood has a significant impact on preferences towards either topic. I find null effects of parenthood on political ideology, but evidence for a conservative effect on social issues. I argue that these results are a reflection of parenthood’s nature as a treatment: individuals self-select with full anticipation into a treatment they know will be risky. 

Scheuch, E.G. (2026) Racial gaps in rooftop solar cannot be traced to gaps in demand. Climatic Change (Impact Factor: 5.4)  179, 18 . https://doi-org.yale.idm.oclc.org/10.1007/s10584-026-04111-w

Abstract: In recent years, multiple studies have documented deep racial inequalities in the distribution of rooftop solar. Such inequalities threaten to slow the fight against climate change and deepen existing energy inequality. Few studies have attempted to investigate the roots of these gaps. One such study, Dorsey and Wolfson argue that a majority of this gap (63%) is due to differences in demand between Black and White households. However, in line with shortcomings the authors themselves acknowledge, I argue that this approach potentially falls short on two fronts (1) It uses a subset of the population that is plausibly nonrepresentative and (2) It imputes rather than directly observes racial status. In this letter, I use original survey data (n = 1,600) that corrects for both of these factors. I find that racial patterns in consumer demand cannot explain the gaps in installation we observe: indeed, Americans of color are as or more pro-solar than White Americans. This is a simple finding but an important one, as it shifts the responsibility for racial solar inequality away from Americans of color and toward the supply side of the market.

Thomas-Walters, L., Goldberg, M. H., Scheuch, E. G., ... & Leiserowitz, A. (2026). Communicating the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Weather in India, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Global Environmental Psychology, 4, 1-25.

Abstract: As climate change increasingly affects the likelihood and severity of extreme weather events such as flooding and heat waves around the world, it is more important than ever to encourage both mitigation and adaptation. As an important step, people need to understand the links between climate change and extreme weather. We conducted a preregistered online randomized experiment with over 10,000 participants across India, the UK, and the USA, three countries that are large annual emitters but have different patterns of extreme weather. We tested the impact of different numerical frames (percentage versus times) and types of extreme weather (heat waves versus flooding) on beliefs that climate change made extreme weather in 2023 more likely. All four message treatments had a significant effect, increasing the percentage of participants who believed climate change made extreme weather more likely by 4.5 to 6.1 percentage points. However, there was no main effect of specific event type or numerical framing. We found message treatments also increased worry about climate change in general, although impact on policy support or information-seeking behavior was limited. The findings of this study contribute to the scarce literature on which messages are effective at communicating extreme weather event attribution.

Goldberg, M. H., Scheuch, E. G., Thomas-Walters, L,…& Leiserowitz, A. (2025). The unique roles of breadth and depth in climate change persuasion. Journal of Environmental Psychology (Impact Factor: 8.7), 102850

Abstract: Reducing climate change requires persuading people about climate change and climate solutions. The nearly universal way of evaluating which climate and environmental messages are most effective is to calculate and compare average treatment effects (ATEs). The problem with the ATE, however, is that it does not describe the underlying pattern of persuasion: whether effect size is better predicted by how many people are persuaded (i.e., breadth), or how much they are persuaded (i.e., depth). Here, we investigate this in a preregistered meta-analysis of our experimental data archive, avoiding publication bias (14 experiments; 94 treatments; total N = 41,265). We find that as treatment effects increase, the breadth and depth of persuasion both increase. However, the predictive power of breadth (β = 0.47, 95% CI [0.29, 0.65]) is far stronger than that of depth (β = 0.10, 95% CI [0.04, 0.15]). We also find that breadth and depth are only weakly correlated (β = 0.23, 95% CI [0.003, 0.46]), confirming they are distinct. Additionally, as average treatment effects increase, we also find that negative (i.e., backlash) effects decrease (β = -0.30, 95% CI [-0.46, -0.15]), suggesting that larger ATEs are a function of increased persuasion and decreased backlash. Through three case studies, we show how these results generalize and when they can be audience-dependent. These results have important implications for both scholars and practitioners of climate and environmental communication.

Thomas-Walters, L. Scheuch, E.G, Ong, A & Goldberg, M.H. (2025) The Impacts of Climate Activism Current Opinion in the Behavioral Sciences (Impact Factor: 4.9)

Volume 63, 2025, 101498, ISSN 2352-1546, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cobeha.2025.101498.

Abstract: We review 50 studies on the impacts of climate activism. We present the existing evidence in a map of what we know about climate activism and its impacts. There is strong evidence that climate activism shifts public opinion and media coverage in a pro-climate direction, but this varies by context and the tactics employed. There is more moderate evidence that activism can pressure policymakers to communicate more about climate change, encourage voters to vote in a more pro-climate direction, and financially pressure carbon-intensive companies. We review suggestive evidence that protest can influence emissions and environmental policy. Although these studies cover a wide swath of outcome variables, a majority examine intermediate variables, rather than long-term impacts. Generalizability is challenged by a bias toward the United States and Western Europe. We call for greater focus outside those geographic areas and more attention to activism’s impact on public policy and emissions.

Scheuch, E.G.  (2025) Economic incentives or racial bias? Public opinion and racial inequities in power plant siting in the United States, Energy Research & Social Science (Impact Factor: 6.9), Volume 121, 103980, ISSN 2214-6296, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2025.103980.

Abstract: For decades, scholars have documented socioeconomic inequities in the siting of power plants. However, these observational studies cannot determine if inequality is a correlate or cause of power plant location. I evaluate one possible causal mechanism, public opinion, through an original survey experiment that is the first to evaluate the impact that community race and income have on attitudes about power plant siting and the first to evaluate drivers of public opinion towards power plants in communities other than their own. I show that voters hold strong NIMBY attitudes towards power plants, being 30 % more supportive of a plant's construction in communities other than their own. I also show that they form those attitudes based on economic factors (plant externalities, site suitability, and community income) rather than racial bias. By testing one possible causal mechanism underlying socioeconomic inequities, I advance the literature on environmental justice and climate politics, demonstrating how the public can reinforce socioeconomic inequities by following economic incentives rooted in discrimination without themselves holding discriminatory views.

Goldberg, M. H., Thaker, J., Scheuch, E.G., Thomas-Walters, L.,  Rosenthal, S.A., and Leiserowitz, A. (2025): Understanding the factors that affect Indians' support for their government's 2070 net-zero goal. Climatic Change (Impact Factor: 5.4)

Abstract: In 2021, the Indian government announced the goal of net-zero carbon emissions in India by 2070. India’s vulnerability to climate impacts and central role in reducing global emissions make it essential to understand the policy features that affect Indians’ support for the 2070 goal. We conducted a conjoint experiment (N = 1,500) to test Indians’ support for the 2070 goal depending on differences among possible policy features including economic programs, allocation of funds collected via coal taxes, policies to mitigate pollution, who participates in the policy-making process, and adaptation policy. We find that Indians express stronger support for the 2070 goal when it includes jobs programs for Indians who lose their job in a coal-fired power plant, policies to mitigate pollution, investment or redistribution of funds collected via coal taxes, and adaptation policies to protect the most vulnerable Indians and critical infrastructure. Support for certain policy features varies depending on income, education, and caste.

Scheuch, E.G. (2025). Green Dreams, Concrete Realities: Overcoming Climate Hurdles in American Mid-Sized Cities. Urban Affairs Review, (Impact Factor: 2.3),61(5), 1345-1380. 10780874241305548.

Abstract: There exists a contradiction in the literature on city size and policy outcomes between those who expect a positive relationship between city size and policy outcomes and those who expect mid-sized cities to be best at providing services. I evaluate this contradiction in the context of climate policy through original fieldwork in four mid-sized cities. Additionally, existing studies of climate policy in mid-sized cities focus on internal best practices for climate policy, while the broader literature on urban climate politics emphasizes the intersectional nature of economic and political context. I evaluate how these previous findings, drawn from research in large or small communities, apply to mid-sized cities. I find that, for my cities, the relationship between size and policy is more nuanced than previous findings expect, while institutions, state capacity, and environmental coalitions all play a crucial role. Finally, I highlight the importance of overcoming the physical legacy of industrialization.

Scheuch, E.G. (2024) Price and Party: The Importance of Partisanship and Cost in American Climate Public Opinion PLOS Climate 3(5): e0000306. (Impact Factor: 1.5), https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000306

Abstract: Existing research on American climate opinion demonstrates that a wide variety of variables impact whether voters support a given policy. However, little research has empirically tested which variables matter the most in creating durable majority support for climate policies, and how varying outcomes of those variables can impact such support. I use a conjoint experiment to test the extent to which American voters value the six most important variables around climate mitigation policy, as illustrated in the current literature, and which potential options among those values attract the greatest support. I improve in external validity over previous conjoints by introducing partisanship and policy level, as well as more realistic ranges for policy cost. I find that voters generally-and across racial, gender, and partisan lines- value some variables ten times higher than others, and prefer Democratic or Bipartisan policies that are low cost and provide a variety of benefits.

Scheuch, E.G1., Ortiz, M., Thomas-Walters, L, Shreedhar, G. (2024) The Power of Protest: Examining Media Portrayals of UK Climate Activism. Humanities and Social Science Communications (Impact Factor: 3.7), 14th Feb 2024 https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-02688-0

Abstract: Over the last several years, the United Kingdom has seen a wave of environmental movements demanding action on the climate crisis. While aligned in their goals, the groups undertaking this activism often diverge on the question of tactics. One such divergence occurred in January 2023, when Extinction Rebellion (XR) declared “We Quit”, ending actions that were disruptive to the general public. Peer groups Just Stop Oil and Animal Rising continued disruptive actions, viewing them as the best way to gain media coverage for their causes. Despite the urgency of addressing climate change and the growing prominence of direct action in British life, little research has examined how the news media covers and reacts to different climate actions. News media plays a vital role in influencing the public’s perception of the climate crisis and “appropriate” responses. We assembled a unique dataset of British news coverage of climate actions over a 7 month period, covering both before and after XR’s “We Quit” statement. Our results reveal that conservative publications cover climate actions more unfavorably and more inaccurately than other publications. Legal actions are generally covered more favorably than illegal ones in both conservative and non-conservative outlets and receive more coverage. Actions that target industry attract more coverage than those that target other actors, while actions that target the public are covered more favorably than those that do not. These results contribute to the scholarly debates surrounding the interaction between social movements and news media, especially on how different strategies potentially influence the extent and affective nature of coverage. They have implications for strategies adopted by climate advocates, depending on whether their goal is merely to draw attention to an issue or if it is to generate positive coverage.

Submitted Manuscripts:

Scheuch, E.G, Marlon J., Osaksut, J., Leiserowitz, A. and Goldberg M.H.: Large Differences in the Cost to Change a Mind on Climate Change 

Revise and Resubmit at Nature Climate Change

Abstract: How should climate communicators select which messages to present to the public, and where to deploy those messages? In climate change communication, as in most fields, scholars often emphasize the importance of message treatment effects, with little focus on factors like attention, geography, and durability. Through a large-scale panel experiment (N = 10,881) and a parallel digital communication campaign in each of the 50 US states (N = 182,059), we estimate the cost to change a mind on climate change and observe massive variation in total impact. We show that the state-level cost to change a mind varies by 39x. In addition to message effectiveness, optimizing climate communication for reach, geography, and durability can improve the cost effectiveness of messaging up to 148% compared to message testing that focuses solely on the national average. This can greatly improve the effectiveness of climate communication when resources are limited. 

Samarth T. and Scheuch, E.G. Policing at a Distance: Explaining Suburban Support for Urban Policing

Revise and Resubmit at American Politics Research

Abstract: In the conflict between suburban exurbs and urban cores, one major point of tension is public safety. Through a divide the dollar game embedded in a survey of six major metro areas in the U.S. (N = 6,200), we test to what extent suburban residents support using their own tax dollars to fund policing in the urban core compared to residents in that core. We find that suburban residents are as or sometimes more willing to pay for metro policing than urban residents despite not directly benefiting from urban police services, but that this divide varies widely across cities. We test three explanations for this heterogeneity: demographic, material, and symbolic. We argue that willingness to pay for urban policing is explained in part by demographics, particularly ideology and race, but that three symbolic concerns are an even stronger explanation: fear of racial change, racial composition of one’s neighborhood, and racial resentment. These symbolic variables operationalize differently based on one’s racial identity and persist in predictiveness after controlling for demographics. Collectively, these findings help shed light on how we should think about policing as a public good and how we understand the interaction between suburban and metropolitan communities in the field of public safety. 

Scheuch, E.G. Thomas-Walters, L. Goldberg, M.H. and Leiserowitz, A. Repeated Messaging Increases the Durability of Political Persuasion, But Only In the Short Term. 

Revise and Resubmit at Journal of Experimental Political Science

Abstract: What affects the durability of persuasion? This study evaluates the influence of two factors—the number of times an individual is treated, and the time between treatments—on climate persuasion in the United States. We conducted a five-wave panel study (N = 2,588), varying exposure to the number of persuasive messages (one versus three) and the interval between messages (two days versus one week). We measure effect durability up to ten weeks after initial exposure. Repeated exposure to persuasive messages more than doubles their durability one week after treatment (from 32% to 79%, on heat wave worry), however, multiple treatments do not increase persuasion compared to a single treatment. This difference in durability between one and three treatments closes after eight weeks, with 6%-8% of individuals remaining persuaded, with no evidence of backlash or partisan heterogeneity in effects. These findings help explain the role of repetition in the durability of persuasion. 

Scheuch, E.G. How do Voters Respond to Gradual Climate Costs? Evidence from the Insurance Crisis

Abstract: Climate change is transforming the U.S. economy in gradual but increasingly impactful ways. Existing literature on climate shocks and economic transformation is poorly positioned to explain how these gradual costs shape opinions and behavior. I study this through the U.S. home insurance market. Using panel data (2016–2024) and 246 million insurance records, I show voters recognize the insurance crisis and shift away from homeownership in response, but that rate increases do not significantly change climate opinions. With original survey data, I explain why: voters fail to attribute insurance costs to climate change and to connect insurance to climate policy. I trace this gap to the information environment: analysis of posts from 3,000 public officials and 2.9 million news articles shows that neither officials nor media frequently link insurance to climate change. These findings advance understanding of how gradual climate costs are, and are not, reshaping American opinion and behavior. 

Ostarek, M., Scheuch, E.G. Nadel, S. and Rogers, C. Protest and the ballot box: how disruptive climate actions shape voting intentions.

Abstract: As the criminalization of protest spreads worldwide, many are increasingly questioning whether disruptive climate protest tactics effectively advance environmental goals and so whether they are worth the potential risk. While disruptive protests can raise awareness and influence public discourse, it is less clear whether they also shift electoral preferences, through increasing support for pro-climate parties or triggering a backlash that benefits anti-climate parties. This paper analyses 1,293 voting intention polls taken on 916 different days with over a million respondents from the UK, Sweden, and Germany from 2022-2023. Our findings show that in all three countries, climate protests have a modest but measurable effect in a pro-climate direction, increasing voting intention for more environmentally conscious parties. However, the size and implications of protest effects vary by country. This suggests that disruptive climate protests may have an important impact on electoral dynamics, with potential implications for future climate policy.

Scheuch, E.G. Kruezer, L, Hacker, J,  Place and Politics: Synthesizing Theory With New Evidence

Abstract: Place is pivotal to American politics. This paper draws on rich literature to develop a framework for understanding place-based identities (PBIs) across two dimensions: density (urban/suburban/rural) and scale (nation/state/city). In this framework, PBIs incorporate “imagined” and “location-specific” place attachments activated by personal and neighborhood characteristics, respectively. We evaluate our framework using a national survey (N = 2,400), surveys in six metros (N = 6,300), open-ended responses, and neighborhood data. Consistent with our expectations, respondents rank national identity above state and then city identity. Large-scale PBIs like the nation have few personal or neighborhood predictors. In contrast, small-scale PBIs have numerous predictors. PBIs can depart from a respondent’s current location or community because they reflect numerous attachments often developed earlier in life. Strikingly, some rival partisanship in strength and predict vote choice independent of partisanship. Analyzing multiple PBIs side-by-side clarifies how citizens define the communities that shape their politics.

Scheuch, E.G Kruezer, L, Hacker, J. How Polarized Is Local Politics?

Abstract: How polarized is local politics? We theorize two prominent divisions - partisanship and density - and develop expectations about when each will emerge. We test our expectations using an original survey fielded in six major metros (N=6,193) and a dataset of spending from 16,606 localities and 10,894 school districts. Our expectations widely hold, with polarization more widespread than anticipated. Partisan polarization is similar in magnitude across local and national issues with few exceptions. Density polarization between urbanites and suburbanites is common and, unexpectedly, cross-pressures Republicans more than Democrats. Both patterns extend to localities' spending. Our findings suggest that local politics is often polarized by partisanship and density while helping to explain variation across local issues.

Working Papers:

Hacker, J. Malpas, A., Pierson, P., and Scheuch, E.G. “Metro Consciousness: The Knowledge Economy and Democrats' New Metro Coalition”

 Scheuch, E.G. Do Supreme Court Decisions Change Public Opinion? Not as much as we think.

Scheuch, E.G. Feeling The Storm, Missing The Message: Attribution and the Uneven Effects of Climate Shocks

Selected Projects in Progress:

Marlon, J…Scheuch E.G., & Leiserowitz, A. Global warming knowledge, beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy preferences across India.

Tedaldi, E., Goldberg, M. Scheuch, E.G…& Leiserowitz, A. Communicating the Energy Transition in India.